Harlow faces a predicament. The population
is growing and the provision of new housing isn’t keeping up. With the average
age of a Harlow person being 38.2 years (compared to the East of England
average of 40.2 years old and the national average of 39.4 years of age), the
population of Harlow is growing at an alarming rate. This is due to an amalgamation
of longer life expectancy, a fairly high birth rate (compared to previous decades)
and high net immigration, all of which contribute to housing shortages and
burgeoning house prices.
My colleagues and myself work closely with
Durham University and they have kindly produced some statistics specifically
for the Harlow Council area. Known as the UK’s leading authority for such
statistics, their population projections make some startling reading…
For the Harlow Council area ... these are
the statistics and future forecasts
2016 population 86,134
2021 population 90,087
2026 population 93,884
2031 population 97,396
2036 population 100,873
The normal ratio of people to property is 2
to 1 in the UK, which therefore means...
We need just over 7,000 additional new properties
to be built
in the Harlow Council area over the next 20
years.
Whilst focusing on population growth does
not tackle the housing crisis in the short term in Harlow, it has a fundamental
role to play in long-term housing
Although many are talking about the need to
improve supply (i.e. the building of new properties), the issue of accumulative
demand from population growth is often overlooked. Nationally, the proportion
of 25-34 year olds who own their own home has dropped dramatically from 66.7%
in 1987 to 43.8% in 2014, whilst 78.2% of over 65s own their own home. Longer
life expectancies mean houses remain in the same hands for longer.
The swift population growth over the last
thirty years provides more competition for the young than for mature
population. It might surprise some
people that 98% of all the land in the UK is either industrial, commercial or
agricultural, with only two percent being used for housing, which means one
could propose expanding supply to meet a expanding population by building on
green belt – that most Politian’s haven’t got the stomach to tackle, especially
in the Tory’ strongholds of the South of England, where the demand is the
greatest. People mention brownfield sites, but recent research suggests there
aren’t as many sites to build on, especially in Harlow that could accommodate 7,000
properties in the next 20 years.
In the short to medium term, demand for a
roof over of one’s head will continue to grow in Harlow (and the country as a
whole). In the short term, that demand can only be met from the private rental
sector (which is good news for homeowners and landlords alike as that keeps
house prices higher).
